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Cannabis tax windfall won’t solve provincial money problems – here’s why

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Welcome to The National Today newsletter, which takes a closer look at what’s happening around some of the day’s most notable stories. Sign up here and it will be delivered directly to your inbox Monday to Friday.

TODAY:

  • The provinces are about to start making a lot of money off of legal weed, but while estimates vary, it seems pretty certain that the windfall won’t be enough to solve their money woes.
  • U.S. Customs and Border Protection is beefing up security along the Canada-U.S. border as the number of illegal crossings rises.
  • The family of kidnapped African billionaire Mohammed Dewji is offering a $567,000 reward for his safe return, no questions asked.
  • Missed The National last night? Watch it here.

Cashing in on cannabis

Recreational cannabis becomes legal at the stroke of midnight across Canada tonight.

And while there are still lots of « unknowns » about the coming weeks and months — from the efficacy of new anti-pot-driving laws, to the legality of workplace bans, to the future of the black market — one thing is not in doubt.

Governments are about to start making a lot of money from legal weed.

A 2016 Deloitte survey of cannabis consumers suggested the total value of the marijuana business in Canada, including paraphernalia, lab tests and security, will be in the range of $23 billion. (Ben Nelms/Reuters)

Estimates vary. The tax deal that the provinces struck with Ottawa last December — a 75/25 split, with the feds’ take limited to $100 million a year — was based on a projected $400 million in total annual revenue. Which is significantly less than the $618 million a year projection that the Parliamentary Budget Office came up with in its 2016 report on the fiscal fallout of legalized cannabis.

Outside analysts, however, have been throwing around much bigger numbers.

Last spring, CIBC predicted that Canada’s retail pot market could top $6.5 billion by 2020, more than what is currently spent on hard liquor and almost as much as wine. It said the provinces would take home more than 70 per cent of the profits and taxes, some $3 billion a year. (A couple of years earlier, a different CIBC report suggested the market could be as big as $10 billion, generating $5 billion in revenue for governments).

Meanwhile, a 2016 Deloitte survey of cannabis consumers suggested the total value of the marijuana business in Canada, including paraphernalia, lab tests and security, will be closer to $23 billion.

Ottawa’s decision to push back the cannabis legalization day from July 1 to Oct. 17 has messed with the fiscal revenue predictions a bit. (Ted Warren/Associated Press)

The provinces are being a little more circumspect.

Cannabis revenue estimates tabled this past spring ranged from a low-ball $1.8 million in profit on $5.8 million in retail sales in Newfoundland and Labrador — less than tiny PEI’s $7.5 million in revenue — to Nova Scotia, which was predicting a budget surplus of $29.4 million based mostly on its take from an expected $87 million in pot sales.

However, Ottawa’s decision to push back the legalization day from July 1 to Oct. 17 has messed with the numbers a bit. New Brunswick, for example, revised its cannabis revenue forecast from $6 million down to $3.6 million for 2018.

And changes of government have made things a little more opaque. The Ontario Liberals had been predicting a net loss over the first two years of government-run cannabis stores, before a $100 million profit in 2021. All of which has changed with Doug Ford’s decision to move to private retail outlets.

Philippe Couillard’s Liberals in Quebec had maintained that they had no profit motive whatsoever, amid plans to set the price of pot at a little over $6 a gram, four bucks less than much of the rest of Canada. New Premier François Legault wants to raise the legal age for cannabis from 18 to 21 and ban smoking in all public places in the province.

Colorado, with a population of 5.6 million — 800,000 more than B.C. — sold $1.95 billion Cdn worth of legal cannabis last year, collecting $319 million in taxes and fees. (Juan Mabromata/AFP/Getty Images)

The most realistic estimate might be British Columbia’s, with a projected government revenue of $200 million by the spring of 2021 and at least $75 million for the coming fiscal year.

Even that is likely blowing smoke, judging by revenue in the U.S.:

Yet the windfall from cannabis may not make that much of a difference to provincial bottom lines.

In British Columbia, cost overruns alone for the Site C hydroelectric dam — now with an estimated price tag of $10.7 billion, $2.4 billion more than envisioned — are the equivalent of almost 15 years of predicted pot profits.

Last week, the Alberta government pledged $700 million to a possible Calgary 2026 Winter Olympics — roughly 27 years of its estimated $26 million annual take from legalized pot.

And just this morning Ontario’s fiscal watchdog, the Financial Accountability Office, tabled a report estimating that the Ford government’s decision to scrap cap-and-trade will result in $3 billion in lost revenue over the next four years. That’s 30 years worth of what provincially run cannabis stores are predicted to have netted.

All suggesting that cannabis consumers aren’t the only ones taking a break from reality.


Border hopping

David Common travelled to Maine and spent time with the U.S. Border Patrol to find out more about who’s crossing illegally — and why some are choosing to jump back into the United States after making it to Canada.

My left foot was in Canada. My right foot in the U.S. Who wouldn’t hop between the two countries for fun when walking along the world’s longest undefended border?

« I’ve been counting, » the border patrol agent in a nearby pickup truck told me. « You’ve broken the law more than 10 times. »

So I stopped.

A U.S. Border Patrol pickup truck is see in the background behind a stone marker on the U.S./Canada border near Hodgdon, Maine. (David Common/CBC)

Luckily, we were on a ride-along with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, so my border-hopping didn’t put me in his sights for arrest. 

More than 32,000 others have done what I did, leaving the U.S. and walking into Canada without going through an official border crossing-point, except they intended to stay. Now the first batch of their asylum claims are being heard and some are being told « no » by Canada, which has American border agents on guard for their return south.

« The government has deemed that their claim is not valid, » the U.S. Border Patrol’s Houlton Division chief Dennis Harmon told me from his unmarked vehicle on the gravel road in rural Maine that separates the two nations. « We have some of those people trying to effect their illegal entry into the U.S. »

The U.S. border agents I spoke to continually stressed the excellent information exchange they have with their Canadian counterparts guarding the border. They said they also appreciate Canadians who call them directly, to mention things like a suspicious car on a border road. They’ve been getting a lot more of those calls lately.

‘We’ve seen an increase [of illegal border crossers] coming into the United States from Canada,’ Dennis Harmon, chief of the Houltan, Maine, division of the U.S. Border Patrol, told CBC News. (Jean-Francois Bisson/CBC)

While some of those making the crossing are people who left the U.S. for Canada illegally and have decided to return, others are believed to be arriving in Canada directly from Mexico.

It’s been a couple of years since Ottawa dropped the visa requirement for Mexican citizens. That means it can actually be cheaper to just buy a flight from Mexico to Canada, get to a quiet part of the border and walk across, rather than pay a Mexican smuggler and take your chances crossing into the southern U.S.

It’s not exactly streams of people, mind you. Yes, apprehensions are up 60 per cent in just this one sector of the Canada/U.S. border. But we’re talking dozens of people a year, not the hundreds a month illegally crossing the U.S/Mexico border.

And yet, any increase gets attention — enough that the border patrol has added agents and technology to detect illegal crossings along the northern frontier.

  • WATCH: David Common’s story on the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s efforts to stop illegal crossings tonight on The National on CBC Television and streamed online

  • Like this newsletter? Sign up and have it delivered by email.
  • You may also like our early-morning newsletter, the Morning Brief — start the day with the news you need in one quick and concise read. Sign up here.

Billionaire kidnapping

The family of a kidnapped African billionaire is offering a $567,000 reward for his safe return, no questions asked.

Mohammed Dewji, a 43-year-old entrepreneur worth an estimated $1.5 billion US, was snatched from outside a luxury hotel in the Tanzanian capital of Dar es Salaam early on Thursday morning. He hasn’t been heard from since.

According to witnesses, a team of three masked, English-speaking men were lying in wait in the parking area of the Colosseum hotel when Dewji, a fitness fanatic, arrived for his daily workout just after 5:30 a.m. They bundled him into a car, fired a shot into the air to dissuade hotel security from pursuing them, and were gone within 30 seconds.

Mohammed Dewji, a Tanzanian business tycoon known locally as Mo, is said to be Africa’s youngest billionaire. (EPA-EFE)

Yesterday, Dewji’s company MeTL — a textile, flour and beverage conglomerate — tweeted details of the reward with the hashtag #BringBackOurMo. Azim Dewji, the kidnap victim’s uncle, told reporters that the family is only interested in Mohammed’s safe return.

« We want to assure anyone with the information about the whereabouts of our son to come forward and we will treat their information as secret. »

Kidnapping is a growing problem in Tanzania. At another press conference yesterday, Kangi Lugola, the country’s minister for home affairs, cited 56 kidnapping incidents over the past three years.

Police successfully rescued 22 of the 27 victims in 2017, Lugola said, and have freed 17 of the 21 people taken so far this year. (For a while after Dewji’s kidnapping it seemed the police had succeeded again, but the reports of his liberation proved false.) The motives ranged from revenge, to political vendettas, to « economic witchcraft beliefs. »

The American-educated Dewji is an internationally known figure who served for 10 years as a member of parliament for Tanzania’s ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party and sponsors the country’s biggest soccer team. Forbes ranks him as Africa’s 17th richest man and the continent’s youngest billionaire.

Dewji does not employ bodyguards. He had driven himself to the hotel in his black Range Rover with its hard-to-miss « MO 1 » vanity plate.

Tanzanian police officers inspect Mohammed Dewji’s Range Rover with the vanity licence plate ‘MO 1’ at Colosseum Hotel and Fitness Club in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, after he was abducted on Oct. 11. (EPA-EFE)

Police have brought in more than two dozen people for questioning in connection with the kidnapping, including employees of the hotel and Dewji’s company. No suspects have been identified, although investigators have said they believe that the masked men are white.

MeTL is Tanzania’s largest domestic company, employing some 24,000 people. Dewji also heads two foundations devoted to ending poverty in the country. In 2017, he pledged to give away at least half his fortune, following in the footsteps of Bill Gates and Warren Buffet.

Tanzania’s government is promising a swift resolution to the kidnapping.

« The police will never rest until the culprits are brought to book, » Lugola said yesterday.


A few words on … 

High-risk skinny-dipping.


Quote of the moment

« We are committed to ensuring that we not only have the tools to hold guilty parties accountable for breaking the law, but [to a system that] also creates an environment that fosters rehabilitation so that we have fewer repeat offenders, fewer victims, and ultimately, safer communities. »

Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale, tabling legislation Tuesday to end solitary confinement of federal prisoners. The government wants to create new penitentiary units, called Structured Intervention Units (SIU), to house inmates separately while still giving them access to rehabilitation, mental health care and other programs.  

Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Ralph Goodale. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)


What The National is reading

  • RCMP expect massive spike in blood test requests for high drivers (CBC)
  • New York City goes entire weekend without a shooting for first time in 14 years (NY Post)
  • Dennis Oland pleads not guilty, again, in father’s death (CBC)
  • Boko Haram militants kill kidnapped aid worker (Guardian)
  • Talks begin on disarming Korean border village (NY Times)
  • Floating pipe starts mission to clean up all the plastic in the Pacific (CNN)
  • What happens when humans fall in love with an invasive species? (FiveThirtyEight)
  • Enormous buried Viking ship discovered by ground radar (National Geographic)

Today in history

Oct. 16, 1993: Blue Jays fever? Not so much for 1993 World Series

The Toronto Blue Jays’ second straight World Series appearance somehow didn’t feel quite as special as the first. Hats and t-shirt sales were a little slow, and the scalpers were having trouble getting the sky-high prices they wanted for SkyDome tickets. It all led Paul Hunter to suggest that maybe fans were getting a bit blasé about success. Until a week later, when Joe Carter hit a walk-off home run to seal the deal and Torontonians danced in the streets.

The Toronto Blue Jays’ trip to the World Series is a little more mundane for fans after the team’s 1992 triumph. 2:31

Sign up here and have The National Today newsletter delivered directly to your inbox Monday to Friday.

Please send your ideas, news tips, rants, and compliments to thenationaltoday@cbc.ca. ​



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Anglais

Nostalgia and much more with Starburst XXXtreme

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Get a taste of adventure with Starburst XXXtreme based on the legendary NetEnt Game. The nostalgic themes are sure to capture fans of the classic version as they get treated to higher intensity, better visuals, and features. The most significant element of the game is its volatility. Patience will not be an essential virtue considering the insane gameplay, and there is a lot of win potential involved. It retains the original makeup of the previous game while adding a healthy dose of adrenaline. 

Starburst Visuals and Symbols

The game is definitely more conspicuous than before. The setting happens over a 5-reel, 3-row game grid with nine fixed win lines, which function if a succession from the left to the right reel is present. Only those players that that attain the highest win per bet line are paid. From a visual standpoint, the Starburst XXXtreme slots illustrates lightning effects behind the reels, which is not surprising as it is inherited from the original version. Available themes include Classic, Jewels, and Space. The game is also available in both desktop and mobile versions, which is advantageous for players considering the global pandemic. According to Techguide, American gamers are increasingly having more engaging gaming experiences to socialize to fill the gap of in-person interaction. Starburst XXXtreme allows them to fill the social void at a time when there is so much time to be had indoors. 

Starburst XXXTreme Features

Players get to alternate on three features which are Starburst Wilds, XXXtreme Spins, and Random Wilds. The first appears on reels 2,3, or 4. When these land, they expand to cover all positions while also calculating the wins. They are also locked for a respin. If a new one hits, it also becomes locked while awarding another respin. Starburst XXXtreme offers a choice between two scenarios for a higher stake. In one scenario with a ten times stake, the Starburst Wild is set on random on reels 2,3, or 4, and a multiplier starts the respin. The second scenario, which has a 95 times stake, starts with two guaranteed starburst wilds on reels 2,3, or 4. it also plays out using respin game sequence and features. The game also increases the potential with the Random Wilds feature to add Starburst Wilds to a vacant reel at the end of a spin. Every Starburst Wild gives a random multiplier with potential wins of x2, x3, x5, x10, x25, x50, x100, or even x150.

The new feature is sure to be a big hit with the gaming market as online gambling has shown significant growth during the lockdown. AdAge indicates the current casino customer base is an estimated one in five Americans, so Starburst XXXtreme’s additional features will achieve considerable popularity. 

What We Think About The Game

The gambling market has continued to diversify post-pandemic, so it is one of the most opportune times to release an online casino-based game. Thankfully Starburst XXXtreme features eye-catching visuals, including the jewels and space themes. These attract audience participation and make the gameplay inviting. The game also has a nostalgic edge. The previous NetEnt iteration featured similar visuals and gameplay, so the audience has some familiarity with it. The producers have revamped this version by tweaking the features to improve the volatility and engagement. 

That is characterized by the potential win cap of 200,000 times the bet. Starburst XXXtreme does not just give betting alternatives for players that want to go big. The increase of multipliers also provides a great experience. If the respins in the previous version were great, knowing that multipliers can go hundreds of times overtakes the game to a new level. 

Players should get excited about this offering. All of the features can be triggered within a single spin. Whether one plays the standard game or takes the XXXtreme spin route, it is possible to activate all of the features. Of course, the potential 200,000 times potential is a huge carrot. However, the bet size is probably going to be restricted and vary depending on the casino. It is also worth pointing out that a malfunction during the gameplay will void all of the payouts and progress. Overall, the game itself has been designed to provide a capped win of 200,000 times the original bet. 

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Anglais

‘We’re back’: Montreal festival promoters happy to return but looking to next year

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In downtown Montreal, it’s festival season.

In the city’s entertainment district, a musical act was conducting a sound check on stage Friday evening — the second day of the French-language version of the renowned Just For Laughs comedy festival. Tickets for many of the festival’s free outdoor shows — limited by COVID-19 regulations — were sold out.

Two blocks away, more than 100 people were watching an acoustic performance by the Isaac Neto Trio — part of the last weekend of the Festival International Nuits d’Afrique, a celebration of music from the African continent and the African diaspora.

With COVID-19 restrictions continuing to limit capacity, festival organizers say they’re glad to be back but looking forward to next year when they hope border restrictions and capacity limits won’t affect their plans.

Charles Décarie, Just For Laughs’ CEO and president, said this is a “transition year.”

“Even though we have major constraints from the public health group in Montreal, we’ve managed to design a festival that can navigate through those constraints,” Décarie said.

The French-language Juste pour rire festival began on July 15 and is followed by the English-language festival until July 31.

When planning began in February and March, Décarie said, organizers came up with a variety of scenarios for different crowd sizes, ranging from no spectators to 50 per cent of usual capacity.

“You’ve got to build scenarios,” he said. “You do have to plan a little bit more than usual because you have to have alternatives.”

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Anglais

MELS new major movie studio to be built in Montreal

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MONTREAL — MELS Studios will build a new film studio in Montreal, filling some of the gap in supply to meet the demand of Hollywood productions.

MELS president Martin Carrier said on Friday that MELS 4 studio construction will begin « as soon as possible », either in the fall or winter of next year. The studio could host productions as early as spring 2023.

The total investment for the project is $76 million, with the Quebec government contributing a $25 million loan. The project will create 110 jobs, according to the company.

The TVA Group subsidiary’s project will enable it to stand out « even more » internationally, according to Quebecor president and CEO Pierre Karl Péladeau. In the past, MELS Studios has hosted several major productions, including chapters of the X-Men franchise. The next Transformers movie is shooting this summer in Montreal.

Péladeau insisted that local cultural productions would also benefit from the new facility, adding that the studio ensures foreign revenues and to showcase talent and maintain an industry of Quebec producers.

STUDIO SHORTAGE

The film industry is cramped in Montreal.

According to a report published last May by the Bureau du cinéma et de la télévision du Québec (BCTQ), there is a shortage of nearly 400,000 square feet of studio space.

With the addition of MELS 4, which will be 160,000 square feet, the company is filling part of the gap.

Carrier admitted that he has had to turn down contracts because of the lack of space, representing missed opportunities of « tens of millions of dollars, not only for MELS, but also for the Quebec economy. »

« Montreal’s expertise is in high demand, » said Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante, who was present at the announcement.

She said she received great testimonials from « Netflix, Disney, HBO and company » during an economic mission to Los Angeles in 2019.

« What stands out is that they love Montreal because of its expertise, knowledge and beauty. We need more space, like MELS 4, » she said.

There is still not enough capacity in Quebec, acknowledged Minister of Finance, the Economy and Innovation Eric Girard.

« It is certain that the government is concerned about fairness and balance, so if other requests come in, we will study them with the same seriousness as we have studied this one, » he said.

Grandé Studios is the second-largest player in the industry. Last May, the company said it had expansion plans that should begin in 2022. Investissement Québec and Bell are minority shareholders in the company.

For its part, MELS will have 400,000 square feet of production space once MELS 4 is completed. The company employs 450 people in Quebec and offers a range of services including studio and equipment rentals, image and sound postproduction, visual effects and a virtual production platform.

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