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U.S. Congress could stretch out approval process for new NAFTA

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WASHINGTON—Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Sherrod Brown say the new NAFTA needs big changes. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke and Amy Klobuchar, among others, haven’t yet offered firm opinions.

Their opinions now matter. Any one of these current and possible Democratic presidential candidates could determine the fate of the agreement, either as the party nominee or as the president.

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed a new free trade agreement in Buenos Aires on Nov. 30, 2018.
Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed a new free trade agreement in Buenos Aires on Nov. 30, 2018.  (TOM BRENNER / NYT FILE PHOTO)

Although the leaders of the U.S., Canada and Mexico signed the agreement last November, this is not a done deal: there is a real chance more negotiations will be necessary to satisfy the Democrats, who now control the U.S. House of Representatives. And there is a real chance that the approval process will drag on into the next presidential term, which begins in 2021.

Congressional Democrats say they will not approve the agreement unless President Donald Trump, who calls it the USMCA, agrees to add language that would make it easier to enforce provisions on labour and on the environment. Democrats, like Trump, have long expressed concerns about U.S. jobs being lost to Mexico, where wages and labour standards are lower.

Politics are also a factor. Democrats are reluctant to give Trump perceived wins as the 2020 election approaches. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who used procedural tools to delay votes on George W. Bush trade agreements, will eventually start taking cues from the person who emerges as the party nominee.

Jennifer Hillman, a senior official with the U.S. trade representative’s office during the Bill Clinton administration, said she thinks there is only a 10 per cent chance the current Congress will ratify the agreement.

“What is the incentive for Nancy Pelosi to put this up on the floor of the House?” said Hillman, now a Georgetown Law professor.

In her most positive public remarks about the deal to date, Pelosi told HuffPost’s Jen Bendery and a group of other U.S. reporters on Friday that it “has been not as contentious as some of the other trade bills, so far,” and she said Trump’s trade chief has been “very attentive” to Democrats’ concerns.

But Pelosi added: “The fact is that the bill, no matter how good it is, if it doesn’t have enforcement, it’s just a conversation.” And she said, “I voted for NAFTA the first time, and I can just tell you, I can still feel the heat.”

Republicans have a whole separate set of concerns. And Rep. Kevin Brady, a senior Republican on the trade file, said at a Washington event Tuesday that members of both parties have told him they are not even willing to “consider” the agreement until the steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico are “ensured to be lifted” and Trump abandons his threat of imposing quotas in their place.

The process will be delayed at least slightly by Trump’s just-concluded government shutdown. The U.S. International Trade Commission said this week that its report analyzing the economic impact of the new agreement, which Congress originally expected by mid-March, will now come as many as 35 days later.

Current and likely Democratic presidential candidates differ in their trade views. Warren, Sanders and Brown are vehement opponents of NAFTA. Former vice-president Biden voted for NAFTA but has since said it needs to be changed, while O’Rourke, a former congressman from Texas, has been a vocal NAFTA supporter.

Trump is often more aligned with the trade-skeptical views of congressional Democrats than with pro-trade congressional Republicans, and the agreement includes some new protectionist provisions. John Weekes, Canada’s chief negotiator on the original NAFTA, said the Democrats probably see the revised NAFTA as an improvement on the original — but, “of course, politics will enter into this.”

“I think it’s going to be pretty hard,” said Weekes, now senior business adviser at law firm Bennett Jones.

Hillman said passage would likely require Trump to make a significant concession to Democrats on some other big issue, plus an all-out White House persuasion push like the “huge operation” mounted by Clinton’s team in 1993. “I don’t think the Trump administration is capable of doing that. And there is certainly not any sense that they’re starting it,” she said.

Other experts are at least slightly more optimistic. Simon Lester, associate director of trade policy at the libertarian Cato Institute, said on Twitter that there is a 25 per cent to 50 per cent chance the current Congress does not pass the agreement, although he added it is “very hard to estimate at this point.”

Trump has threatened to play hardball if Congress won’t budge, saying he would begin the process of withdrawing from the current NAFTA to try to give Congress a take-it-or-leave-it decision between the new deal or nothing. Such a move would be challenged in court and would likely anger congressional Republicans.

There is a precedent for newly empowered Democrats forcing a renegotiation of a trade agreement signed by a Republican president. During his 1992 campaign, Clinton announced that he broadly supported George H.W. Bush’s NAFTA but would not bring it into law unless its “deficiencies” on labour and the environment were addressed through what he called “supplemental agreements” — provisions added to the deal package but separated from the agreed-upon main text.

So intensive negotiations started up again when Clinton won, and they lasted more than six months. Canada and Mexico “weren’t surprised” about having to return to the table, said Mickey Kantor, Clinton’s top trade official at the time, but “it was a daunting task.”

“They understood the politics of the U.S. On the other hand, they were pretty adamant about the agreement they had already negotiated with the U.S.,” Kantor said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s ambassador to the U.S., David MacNaughton, has made a pitch to Congress for the current agreement, noting that it has labour and environmental provisions in the main text and that “there is some enforceability.” He said in mid-January that he is “confident” Congress will support the agreement.

It is not clear if side agreements would work this time as a way to resolve congressional concerns. One possibility that would avoid a broad renegotiation, Weekes said, would be the U.S. making changes through the legislation Congress will have to pass to bring the deal into effect.

One thing seems certain: Canada will face uncertainty through to the very end of the process. Weekes recalled the Canadian side having to fight off last-minute U.S. “shenanigans” when there was an attempt to sneak language into the legislation that differed from what the countries had agreed upon.

Daniel Dale is the Star’s Washington bureau chief. He covers U.S. politics and current affairs. Follow him on Twitter: @ddale8

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Nostalgia and much more with Starburst XXXtreme

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Get a taste of adventure with Starburst XXXtreme based on the legendary NetEnt Game. The nostalgic themes are sure to capture fans of the classic version as they get treated to higher intensity, better visuals, and features. The most significant element of the game is its volatility. Patience will not be an essential virtue considering the insane gameplay, and there is a lot of win potential involved. It retains the original makeup of the previous game while adding a healthy dose of adrenaline. 

Starburst Visuals and Symbols

The game is definitely more conspicuous than before. The setting happens over a 5-reel, 3-row game grid with nine fixed win lines, which function if a succession from the left to the right reel is present. Only those players that that attain the highest win per bet line are paid. From a visual standpoint, the Starburst XXXtreme slots illustrates lightning effects behind the reels, which is not surprising as it is inherited from the original version. Available themes include Classic, Jewels, and Space. The game is also available in both desktop and mobile versions, which is advantageous for players considering the global pandemic. According to Techguide, American gamers are increasingly having more engaging gaming experiences to socialize to fill the gap of in-person interaction. Starburst XXXtreme allows them to fill the social void at a time when there is so much time to be had indoors. 

Starburst XXXTreme Features

Players get to alternate on three features which are Starburst Wilds, XXXtreme Spins, and Random Wilds. The first appears on reels 2,3, or 4. When these land, they expand to cover all positions while also calculating the wins. They are also locked for a respin. If a new one hits, it also becomes locked while awarding another respin. Starburst XXXtreme offers a choice between two scenarios for a higher stake. In one scenario with a ten times stake, the Starburst Wild is set on random on reels 2,3, or 4, and a multiplier starts the respin. The second scenario, which has a 95 times stake, starts with two guaranteed starburst wilds on reels 2,3, or 4. it also plays out using respin game sequence and features. The game also increases the potential with the Random Wilds feature to add Starburst Wilds to a vacant reel at the end of a spin. Every Starburst Wild gives a random multiplier with potential wins of x2, x3, x5, x10, x25, x50, x100, or even x150.

The new feature is sure to be a big hit with the gaming market as online gambling has shown significant growth during the lockdown. AdAge indicates the current casino customer base is an estimated one in five Americans, so Starburst XXXtreme’s additional features will achieve considerable popularity. 

What We Think About The Game

The gambling market has continued to diversify post-pandemic, so it is one of the most opportune times to release an online casino-based game. Thankfully Starburst XXXtreme features eye-catching visuals, including the jewels and space themes. These attract audience participation and make the gameplay inviting. The game also has a nostalgic edge. The previous NetEnt iteration featured similar visuals and gameplay, so the audience has some familiarity with it. The producers have revamped this version by tweaking the features to improve the volatility and engagement. 

That is characterized by the potential win cap of 200,000 times the bet. Starburst XXXtreme does not just give betting alternatives for players that want to go big. The increase of multipliers also provides a great experience. If the respins in the previous version were great, knowing that multipliers can go hundreds of times overtakes the game to a new level. 

Players should get excited about this offering. All of the features can be triggered within a single spin. Whether one plays the standard game or takes the XXXtreme spin route, it is possible to activate all of the features. Of course, the potential 200,000 times potential is a huge carrot. However, the bet size is probably going to be restricted and vary depending on the casino. It is also worth pointing out that a malfunction during the gameplay will void all of the payouts and progress. Overall, the game itself has been designed to provide a capped win of 200,000 times the original bet. 

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Anglais

‘We’re back’: Montreal festival promoters happy to return but looking to next year

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In downtown Montreal, it’s festival season.

In the city’s entertainment district, a musical act was conducting a sound check on stage Friday evening — the second day of the French-language version of the renowned Just For Laughs comedy festival. Tickets for many of the festival’s free outdoor shows — limited by COVID-19 regulations — were sold out.

Two blocks away, more than 100 people were watching an acoustic performance by the Isaac Neto Trio — part of the last weekend of the Festival International Nuits d’Afrique, a celebration of music from the African continent and the African diaspora.

With COVID-19 restrictions continuing to limit capacity, festival organizers say they’re glad to be back but looking forward to next year when they hope border restrictions and capacity limits won’t affect their plans.

Charles Décarie, Just For Laughs’ CEO and president, said this is a “transition year.”

“Even though we have major constraints from the public health group in Montreal, we’ve managed to design a festival that can navigate through those constraints,” Décarie said.

The French-language Juste pour rire festival began on July 15 and is followed by the English-language festival until July 31.

When planning began in February and March, Décarie said, organizers came up with a variety of scenarios for different crowd sizes, ranging from no spectators to 50 per cent of usual capacity.

“You’ve got to build scenarios,” he said. “You do have to plan a little bit more than usual because you have to have alternatives.”

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MELS new major movie studio to be built in Montreal

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MONTREAL — MELS Studios will build a new film studio in Montreal, filling some of the gap in supply to meet the demand of Hollywood productions.

MELS president Martin Carrier said on Friday that MELS 4 studio construction will begin « as soon as possible », either in the fall or winter of next year. The studio could host productions as early as spring 2023.

The total investment for the project is $76 million, with the Quebec government contributing a $25 million loan. The project will create 110 jobs, according to the company.

The TVA Group subsidiary’s project will enable it to stand out « even more » internationally, according to Quebecor president and CEO Pierre Karl Péladeau. In the past, MELS Studios has hosted several major productions, including chapters of the X-Men franchise. The next Transformers movie is shooting this summer in Montreal.

Péladeau insisted that local cultural productions would also benefit from the new facility, adding that the studio ensures foreign revenues and to showcase talent and maintain an industry of Quebec producers.

STUDIO SHORTAGE

The film industry is cramped in Montreal.

According to a report published last May by the Bureau du cinéma et de la télévision du Québec (BCTQ), there is a shortage of nearly 400,000 square feet of studio space.

With the addition of MELS 4, which will be 160,000 square feet, the company is filling part of the gap.

Carrier admitted that he has had to turn down contracts because of the lack of space, representing missed opportunities of « tens of millions of dollars, not only for MELS, but also for the Quebec economy. »

« Montreal’s expertise is in high demand, » said Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante, who was present at the announcement.

She said she received great testimonials from « Netflix, Disney, HBO and company » during an economic mission to Los Angeles in 2019.

« What stands out is that they love Montreal because of its expertise, knowledge and beauty. We need more space, like MELS 4, » she said.

There is still not enough capacity in Quebec, acknowledged Minister of Finance, the Economy and Innovation Eric Girard.

« It is certain that the government is concerned about fairness and balance, so if other requests come in, we will study them with the same seriousness as we have studied this one, » he said.

Grandé Studios is the second-largest player in the industry. Last May, the company said it had expansion plans that should begin in 2022. Investissement Québec and Bell are minority shareholders in the company.

For its part, MELS will have 400,000 square feet of production space once MELS 4 is completed. The company employs 450 people in Quebec and offers a range of services including studio and equipment rentals, image and sound postproduction, visual effects and a virtual production platform.

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